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Look at the picture. A cup of coffee is still on the table, the notebook is open, the pen is nearby, and the phone has been left behind. The chair is pushed back, but there is nobody in the room. Something has interrupted this person’s work. Where are they now, and what might have happened?
  • The person must be nearby because the coffee is still there and the notebook is open.
  • They might be in another room for a short time.
  • They can’t be far away because they left their phone on the table.
  • They must have been working or studying before they left.
  • They might have gone to answer the door or speak to someone.
We use modals of deduction and probability may, might, must and can’t when we use clues or information to make a guess about a situation.
deduction — [dɪˈdʌk.ʃən] — a conclusion you make by using the information or clues you have; secinājums, kas izdarīts, balstoties uz pieejamo informāciju vai pazīmēm
probability — [ˌprɒb.əˈbɪl.ə.ti] — how likely it is that something is true or will happen; varbūtība, iespējamības pakāpe
Must — I’m sure it is true
Use "must" when you are sure, or almost sure, that something is true: must + base verb
You must be tired after the long journey. (I’m sure you are tired.)
The keys must be in the car. (I’m almost sure they are there.)
May / Might — Perhaps it is true
Use "may" or "might" when something is possible, but you are not sure: may / might + base verb
He might be a basketball player. (Perhaps he is.)
She may be his girlfriend. (Perhaps she is.)
"May" and "might" have very similar meanings when we talk about possibility.
May not / Might not — Perhaps it is not true
Use "may not" or "might not" when something is possibly not true: may not / might not + base verb
She might not know where you are. (Perhaps she does not know.)
Can't — I’m sure it is not true
Use "can’t" when you are sure, or almost sure, that something is not true: can’t + base verb
It can’t be far from here. (I’m sure it is not far.)
They can’t know many people. (I’m almost sure they do not know many people.)
Svarīgi!
For negative deduction, use "can’t", not "mustn’t".
Wrong: It mustn’t be far from here.
Correct: It can’t be far from here.
"Mustn’t" has a different meaning: it usually expresses prohibition.
Do not use "can" for a possible deduction. We do not normally use can when we mean “perhaps”.
Wrong: He can be at home now.
Correct: He may be at home now.
Correct: He might be at home now.
So:
may / might = perhaps
can’t = I’m sure not
 
Actions happening now
When we make a deduction about an action that is happening right now, use: may / might / must / can’t + be + verb-ing
They must be having a great time. (I’m sure they are having a great time.)
He might be waiting for us. (Perhaps he is waiting for us.)
She can’t be sleeping. I can hear her talking. (I’m sure she is not sleeping.)
 
In a nutshell:
Svarīgi!
must — very likely / almost certain
may / might — possible
may not / might not — possibly not
can’t — very unlikely / almost certainly not